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Richard Jones Atlantic Solo Row

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Richard Postpones Row due to Hurricane Ivan
Sept 27

Sponsored by World Wide River Expeditions (click here for more info)

     Richard Jones has beat a hasty retreat from three approaching Hurricanes-Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. Discretion is the better part of valor. Richard left the 23rd of September and has been fighting unfavorable winds and currents since his departure. Today Richard was aware Hurricane Ivan was about to slam him into the coast of Portugal and was able to contact an English vessel that gave him a tow in to Lisbon. He has been through some rough seas but he is well and in safe harbor. More as soon as we get word. Meanwhile we are starting a "guestbook" for people to send messages of encouragement to Richard. Please send e-mails to and we will post them on the website and forward them on to Richard.

Tom Lynch
American Director
Ocean Rowing Society

Below is data from the hurricane tracking center projecting where Atlantic Hurricanes will strike.

1998-Sep-27 23:21:46 UT

data from :

Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities for 3900N 950W

Probability, at the forecast times shown, that the storm center will be within 60 nmi, 120 nmi, and 240 nmi of 3900N 950W. Probabilities at intermediate times may be higher than those shown. The probabilities are given in percent ("<1" means "less than one percent probability") and are updated whenever a new forecast is received.



Name Date Time Relative Time   60 nmi   120 nmi   240 nmi   Wind
Now Fcst   T I C   T I C   T I C  
IVAN 1998-09-27 18:00 UT -4 h +15 h   1 1 1   19 19 19   97 97 97   045
IVAN 1998-09-28 00:00 UT +1 h +21 h   4 5 5   24 43 43   89 99 99   040
JEANNE 1998-09-30 18:00 UT +67 h +69 h   <1 <1 <1   1 1 1   5 5 5   050
KARL 1998-09-29 06:00 UT +31 h +33 h   <1 <1 <1   <1 <1 <1   5 5 5   045

JEANNE probabilities based on forecast data from 1998-09-27 21:00 UT


KARL probabilities based on forecast data from 1998-09-27 21:00 UT


IVAN probabilities based on forecast data from 1998-09-27 03:00 UT





Warning! These data may not be accurate. Do not rely on them for life or death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property. The strike probabilities have no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances.

Description of the strike probabilty calculation (168 kB PostScript file)



ivan-98.gif (10176 bytes)
JEANNE-98.gif (6644 bytes)
karl-98.gif (7570 bytes)